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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."