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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.