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The Ashes could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side host a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Interest Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a much more significant shift with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the series may see the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that train approaching, coming around the bend, and England ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.