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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.